Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
